What is the Best Draft Position?
Using the player values created, I calculated the average total value of the picks selected from each draft position. The results showed a clear advantage to having one of the top 5 picks of the draft.
Draft Position | Avg. Draft Value |
1 | 263.2 |
2 | 260.5 |
3 | 266.3 |
4 | 263.2 |
5 | 267.7 |
6 | 258.4 |
7 | 256.2 |
8 | 258.0 |
9 | 248.5 |
10 | 255.8 |
11 | 256.2 |
12 | 254.8 |
13 | 253.0 |
14 | 253.2 |
15 | 249.0 |
The difference between having the #1 pick and the #15 pick is worth about $14. Players chosen with the #15 pick were worth $33 on average while players chosen with the #1 pick were worth $47, explaining that difference. That means that AFTER the first round, the #1 slot is about equal to the #15 slot.
To determine the value of each individual spot throughout the whole draft, I looked at the average value of all players chosen at that pick number. Then I applied a smoothing algorithm so that, for example, pick #26 wouldn't be more valuable than pick #25. Teams picking from the #5 slot were generally picking more valuable players on average than the teams right before and after; this may be due to better owners being in the #5 slot and may explain why the #5 draft slot had been calculated as the most valuable. Smoothing the results eliminates the effect of the better owners being in certain positions.
Pick Number | Draft Slot | Average Value | Smoothed Value |
1 | 1 | 47.0 | 47.0 |
2 | 2 | 46.3 | 46.5 |
3 | 3 | 46.2 | 46.2 |
4 | 4 | 46.3 | 46.2 |
5 | 5 | 40.7 | 40.7 |
6 | 6 | 39.4 | 39.8 |
7 | 7 | 39.4 | 39.1 |
8 | 8 | 39.0 | 38.5 |
9 | 9 | 36.8 | 37.9 |
10 | 10 | 37.1 | 37.0 |
11 | 11 | 37.0 | 36.2 |
12 | 12 | 36.5 | 35.3 |
13 | 13 | 34.7 | 34.4 |
14 | 14 | 33.5 | 33.8 |
15 | 15 | 32.3 | 33.0 |
16 | 15 | 31.3 | 32.1 |
17 | 14 | 30.9 | 31.4 |
18 | 13 | 31.0 | 30.7 |
19 | 12 | 30.0 | 30.4 |
20 | 11 | 28.8 | 29.9 |
21 | 10 | 30.0 | 29.7 |
22 | 9 | 29.0 | 29.5 |
23 | 8 | 30.2 | 29.1 |
24 | 7 | 28.4 | 28.8 |
25 | 6 | 28.4 | 28.5 |
26 | 5 | 29.1 | 28.3 |
27 | 4 | 28.5 | 28.0 |
28 | 3 | 27.2 | 27.8 |
29 | 2 | 26.9 | 27.4 |
30 | 1 | 27.4 | 27.4 |
31 | 1 | 26.8 | 27.2 |
32 | 2 | 26.5 | 26.9 |
33 | 3 | 26.2 | 26.7 |
34 | 4 | 26.5 | 26.5 |
35 | 5 | 27.4 | 26.4 |
36 | 6 | 26.4 | 26.2 |
37 | 7 | 26.6 | 26.1 |
38 | 8 | 25.7 | 26.0 |
39 | 9 | 25.8 | 25.9 |
40 | 10 | 25.5 | 25.8 |
41 | 11 | 24.8 | 25.3 |
42 | 12 | 25.7 | 25.1 |
43 | 13 | 25.9 | 24.9 |
44 | 14 | 24.8 | 24.8 |
45 | 15 | 25.1 | 24.6 |
46 | 15 | 22.1 | 24.5 |
47 | 14 | 24.1 | 24.4 |
48 | 13 | 24.9 | 24.2 |
49 | 12 | 23.8 | 24.0 |
50 | 11 | 24.2 | 23.9 |
51 | 10 | 24.5 | 23.8 |
52 | 9 | 23.8 | 23.7 |
53 | 8 | 23.1 | 23.7 |
54 | 7 | 23.2 | 23.5 |
55 | 6 | 24.0 | 23.3 |
56 | 5 | 23.0 | 23.1 |
57 | 4 | 22.6 | 22.8 |
58 | 3 | 23.6 | 22.6 |
59 | 2 | 22.5 | 22.3 |
60 | 1 | 22.0 | 22.2 |
61 | 1 | 22.1 | 22.0 |
62 | 2 | 20.8 | 21.8 |
63 | 3 | 21.5 | 21.7 |
64 | 4 | 20.4 | 21.6 |
65 | 5 | 22.3 | 21.3 |
66 | 6 | 21.4 | 21.1 |
67 | 7 | 21.0 | 20.9 |
68 | 8 | 21.1 | 20.8 |
69 | 9 | 22.5 | 20.7 |
70 | 10 | 19.7 | 20.6 |
71 | 11 | 20.1 | 20.3 |
72 | 12 | 18.9 | 20.1 |
73 | 13 | 19.8 | 19.9 |
74 | 14 | 20.2 | 19.7 |
75 | 15 | 19.8 | 19.3 |
76 | 15 | 19.2 | 19.1 |
77 | 14 | 18.9 | 18.9 |
78 | 13 | 18.4 | 18.8 |
79 | 12 | 19.6 | 18.6 |
80 | 11 | 18.1 | 18.4 |
81 | 10 | 17.5 | 18.2 |
82 | 9 | 18.0 | 18.0 |
83 | 8 | 17.5 | 17.9 |
84 | 7 | 17.9 | 17.8 |
85 | 6 | 17.7 | 17.5 |
86 | 5 | 17.8 | 17.5 |
87 | 4 | 17.3 | 17.3 |
88 | 3 | 17.8 | 17.2 |
89 | 2 | 16.5 | 17.0 |
90 | 1 | 17.0 | 16.9 |
91 | 1 | 17.6 | 16.9 |
92 | 2 | 15.6 | 16.6 |
93 | 3 | 16.4 | 16.5 |
94 | 4 | 16.1 | 16.3 |
95 | 5 | 16.8 | 16.3 |
96 | 6 | 16.8 | 16.1 |
97 | 7 | 15.2 | 15.9 |
98 | 8 | 17.9 | 15.9 |
99 | 9 | 14.0 | 15.6 |
100 | 10 | 15.8 | 15.3 |
101 | 11 | 14.9 | 15.1 |
102 | 12 | 15.2 | 14.8 |
103 | 13 | 15.4 | 14.7 |
104 | 14 | 13.9 | 14.6 |
105 | 15 | 12.8 | 14.3 |
106 | 15 | 14.1 | 14.1 |
107 | 14 | 13.8 | 13.9 |
108 | 13 | 13.2 | 13.8 |
109 | 12 | 15.6 | 13.6 |
110 | 11 | 13.8 | 13.5 |
111 | 10 | 13.4 | 13.4 |
112 | 9 | 11.8 | 13.4 |
113 | 8 | 13.3 | 13.3 |
114 | 7 | 12.6 | 13.1 |
115 | 6 | 12.9 | 13.0 |
116 | 5 | 13.8 | 13.0 |
117 | 4 | 12.9 | 12.8 |
118 | 3 | 13.9 | 12.7 |
119 | 2 | 13.0 | 12.4 |
120 | 1 | 11.1 | 12.4 |
121 | 1 | 11.4 | 12.2 |
122 | 2 | 13.1 | 12.1 |
123 | 3 | 12.5 | 12.0 |
124 | 4 | 12.7 | 11.9 |
125 | 5 | 11.9 | 11.7 |
126 | 6 | 9.7 | 11.5 |
127 | 7 | 11.5 | 11.4 |
128 | 8 | 10.8 | 11.3 |
129 | 9 | 10.4 | 11.1 |
130 | 10 | 11.9 | 11.0 |
131 | 11 | 11.6 | 10.8 |
132 | 12 | 10.4 | 10.5 |
133 | 13 | 11.3 | 10.4 |
134 | 14 | 10.5 | 10.4 |
135 | 15 | 9.4 | 10.2 |
136 | 15 | 9.5 | 10.1 |
137 | 14 | 10.9 | 10.0 |
138 | 13 | 9.2 | 9.9 |
139 | 12 | 9.0 | 9.8 |
140 | 11 | 10.1 | 9.6 |
141 | 10 | 8.7 | 9.4 |
142 | 9 | 8.4 | 9.3 |
143 | 8 | 9.6 | 9.3 |
144 | 7 | 9.7 | 9.2 |
145 | 6 | 9.4 | 9.1 |
146 | 5 | 10.1 | 9.1 |
147 | 4 | 8.1 | 9.0 |
148 | 3 | 8.9 | 9.0 |
149 | 2 | 8.4 | 9.0 |
150 | 1 | 8.8 | 9.0 |
151 | 1 | 8.7 | 8.9 |
152 | 2 | 9.4 | 8.9 |
153 | 3 | 8.6 | 8.8 |
154 | 4 | 8.9 | 8.7 |
155 | 5 | 10.0 | 8.7 |
156 | 6 | 9.4 | 8.7 |
157 | 7 | 8.4 | 8.7 |
158 | 8 | 8.8 | 8.7 |
159 | 9 | 7.4 | 8.6 |
160 | 10 | 9.0 | 8.5 |
161 | 11 | 8.6 | 8.4 |
162 | 12 | 8.5 | 8.3 |
163 | 13 | 8.0 | 8.2 |
164 | 14 | 8.3 | 8.0 |
165 | 15 | 9.2 | 7.9 |
166 | 15 | 8.6 | 7.9 |
167 | 14 | 7.8 | 7.7 |
168 | 13 | 7.0 | 7.6 |
169 | 12 | 7.0 | 7.6 |
170 | 11 | 8.0 | 7.6 |
171 | 10 | 7.8 | 7.6 |
172 | 9 | 6.8 | 7.5 |
173 | 8 | 6.0 | 7.3 |
174 | 7 | 7.5 | 7.3 |
175 | 6 | 6.2 | 7.3 |
176 | 5 | 7.5 | 7.3 |
177 | 4 | 8.0 | 7.2 |
178 | 3 | 8.5 | 7.2 |
179 | 2 | 7.7 | 7.2 |
180 | 1 | 7.6 | 7.2 |
181 | 1 | 6.0 | 7.2 |
182 | 2 | 6.8 | 7.1 |
183 | 3 | 7.8 | 7.1 |
184 | 4 | 6.8 | 7.1 |
185 | 5 | 7.0 | 7.0 |
186 | 6 | 7.5 | 6.9 |
187 | 7 | 6.8 | 6.8 |
188 | 8 | 6.6 | 6.8 |
189 | 9 | 7.5 | 6.7 |
190 | 10 | 6.8 | 6.6 |
191 | 11 | 7.1 | 6.5 |
192 | 12 | 6.8 | 6.4 |
193 | 13 | 5.7 | 6.3 |
194 | 14 | 6.4 | 6.2 |
195 | 15 | 5.8 | 6.1 |
196 | 15 | 6.1 | 5.9 |
197 | 14 | 5.6 | 5.8 |
198 | 13 | 5.8 | 5.6 |
199 | 12 | 6.1 | 5.5 |
200 | 11 | 5.6 | 5.5 |
201 | 10 | 5.9 | 5.3 |
202 | 9 | 4.6 | 5.3 |
203 | 8 | 5.3 | 5.3 |
204 | 7 | 4.3 | 5.2 |
205 | 6 | 5.8 | 5.2 |
206 | 5 | 4.7 | 5.0 |
207 | 4 | 5.5 | 5.0 |
208 | 3 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
209 | 2 | 4.1 | 5.0 |
210 | 1 | 5.5 | 5.0 |
211 | 1 | 4.8 | 4.9 |
212 | 2 | 5.8 | 4.9 |
213 | 3 | 4.9 | 4.9 |
214 | 4 | 4.1 | 4.7 |
215 | 5 | 6.1 | 4.7 |
216 | 6 | 4.5 | 4.6 |
217 | 7 | 4.7 | 4.6 |
218 | 8 | 4.8 | 4.5 |
219 | 9 | 5.2 | 4.4 |
220 | 10 | 4.2 | 4.4 |
221 | 11 | 4.1 | 4.4 |
222 | 12 | 3.5 | 4.2 |
223 | 13 | 3.6 | 4.2 |
224 | 14 | 3.7 | 4.1 |
225 | 15 | 4.5 | 4.0 |
226 | 15 | 4.6 | 3.9 |
227 | 14 | 4.1 | 3.9 |
228 | 13 | 4.7 | 3.9 |
229 | 12 | 3.6 | 3.9 |
230 | 11 | 4.1 | 3.9 |
231 | 10 | 3.7 | 3.9 |
232 | 9 | 3.8 | 3.8 |
233 | 8 | 3.4 | 3.8 |
234 | 7 | 3.9 | 3.7 |
235 | 6 | 3.6 | 3.5 |
236 | 5 | 3.8 | 3.5 |
237 | 4 | 3.5 | 3.4 |
238 | 3 | 3.7 | 3.4 |
239 | 2 | 3.9 | 3.4 |
240 | 1 | 4.1 | 3.4 |
241 | 1 | 3.1 | 3.3 |
242 | 2 | 2.5 | 3.2 |
243 | 3 | 2.4 | 3.2 |
244 | 4 | 3.0 | 3.2 |
245 | 5 | 3.5 | 3.1 |
246 | 6 | 3.3 | 3.0 |
247 | 7 | 3.7 | 2.9 |
248 | 8 | 3.8 | 2.9 |
249 | 9 | 2.6 | 2.9 |
250 | 10 | 2.1 | 2.9 |
251 | 11 | 3.3 | 2.8 |
252 | 12 | 3.0 | 2.8 |
253 | 13 | 2.2 | 2.7 |
254 | 14 | 2.5 | 2.6 |
255 | 15 | 2.9 | 2.5 |
256 | 15 | 2.1 | 2.5 |
257 | 14 | 2.9 | 2.5 |
258 | 13 | 2.7 | 2.4 |
259 | 12 | 2.6 | 2.4 |
260 | 11 | 2.5 | 2.4 |
261 | 10 | 2.6 | 2.3 |
262 | 9 | 1.8 | 2.3 |
263 | 8 | 2.0 | 2.3 |
264 | 7 | 2.5 | 2.2 |
265 | 6 | 2.0 | 2.2 |
266 | 5 | 2.3 | 2.1 |
267 | 4 | 2.3 | 2.1 |
268 | 3 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
269 | 2 | 1.6 | 2.0 |
270 | 1 | 2.7 | 2.0 |
271 | 1 | 1.5 | 2.0 |
272 | 2 | 2.2 | 2.0 |
273 | 3 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
274 | 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 |
275 | 5 | 1.5 | 1.9 |
276 | 6 | 2.5 | 1.9 |
277 | 7 | 1.7 | 1.9 |
278 | 8 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
279 | 9 | 1.4 | 1.8 |
280 | 10 | 2.2 | 1.8 |
281 | 11 | 2.0 | 1.8 |
282 | 12 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
283 | 13 | 1.9 | 1.7 |
284 | 14 | 1.8 | 1.6 |
285 | 15 | 1.9 | 1.6 |
286 | 15 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
287 | 14 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
288 | 13 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
289 | 12 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
290 | 11 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
291 | 10 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
292 | 9 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
293 | 8 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
294 | 7 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
295 | 6 | 1.2 | 1.3 |
296 | 5 | 1.7 | 1.3 |
297 | 4 | 1.6 | 1.3 |
298 | 3 | 1.2 | 1.3 |
299 | 2 | 0.9 | 1.3 |
300 | 1 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
301 | 1 | 1.6 | 1.3 |
302 | 2 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
303 | 3 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
304 | 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
305 | 5 | 1.7 | 1.2 |
306 | 6 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
307 | 7 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
308 | 8 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
309 | 9 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
310 | 10 | 1.4 | 1.1 |
311 | 11 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
312 | 12 | 0.6 | 1.1 |
313 | 13 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
314 | 14 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
315 | 15 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
316 | 15 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
317 | 14 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
318 | 13 | 1.2 | 1.0 |
319 | 12 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
320 | 11 | 0.7 | 1.0 |
321 | 10 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
322 | 9 | 0.6 | 0.9 |
323 | 8 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
324 | 7 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
325 | 6 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
326 | 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
327 | 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
328 | 3 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
329 | 2 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
330 | 1 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
331 | 1 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
332 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
333 | 3 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
334 | 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
335 | 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
336 | 6 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
337 | 7 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
338 | 8 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
339 | 9 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
340 | 10 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
341 | 11 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
342 | 12 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
343 | 13 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
344 | 14 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
345 | 15 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
346 | 15 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
347 | 14 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
348 | 13 | 0.3 | 0.6 |
349 | 12 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
350 | 11 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
351 | 10 | 0.3 | 0.5 |
352 | 9 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
353 | 8 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
354 | 7 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
355 | 6 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
356 | 5 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
357 | 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
358 | 3 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
359 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
360 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
361 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
362 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
363 | 3 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
364 | 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
365 | 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
366 | 6 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
367 | 7 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
368 | 8 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
369 | 9 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
370 | 10 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
371 | 11 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
372 | 12 | 0.2 | 0.4 |
373 | 13 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
374 | 14 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
375 | 15 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
376 | 15 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
377 | 14 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
378 | 13 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
379 | 12 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
380 | 11 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
381 | 10 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
382 | 9 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
383 | 8 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
384 | 7 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
385 | 6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
386 | 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
387 | 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
388 | 3 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
389 | 2 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
390 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
391 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
392 | 2 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
393 | 3 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
394 | 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
395 | 5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
396 | 6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
397 | 7 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
398 | 8 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
399 | 9 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
400 | 10 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
401 | 11 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
402 | 12 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
403 | 13 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
404 | 14 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
405 | 15 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
406 | 15 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
407 | 14 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
408 | 13 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
409 | 12 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
410 | 11 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
411 | 10 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
412 | 9 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
413 | 8 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
414 | 7 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
415 | 6 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
416 | 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
417 | 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
418 | 3 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
419 | 2 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
420 | 1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
421 | 1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
422 | 2 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
423 | 3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
424 | 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
425 | 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
426 | 6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
427 | 7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
428 | 8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
429 | 9 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
430 | 10 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
431 | 11 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
432 | 12 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
433 | 13 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
434 | 14 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
435 | 15 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
436 | 15 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
437 | 14 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
438 | 13 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
439 | 12 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
440 | 11 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
441 | 10 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
442 | 9 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
443 | 8 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
444 | 7 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
445 | 6 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
446 | 5 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
447 | 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
448 | 3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
449 | 2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
450 | 1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |