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What is the Best Draft Position?

Using the player values created, I calculated the average total value of the picks selected from each draft position. The results showed a clear advantage to having one of the top 5 picks of the draft.

Draft Position Avg. Draft Value
1 263.2
2 260.5
3 266.3
4 263.2
5 267.7
6 258.4
7 256.2
8 258.0
9 248.5
10 255.8
11 256.2
12 254.8
13 253.0
14 253.2
15 249.0

The difference between having the #1 pick and the #15 pick is worth about $14. Players chosen with the #15 pick were worth $33 on average while players chosen with the #1 pick were worth $47, explaining that difference. That means that AFTER the first round, the #1 slot is about equal to the #15 slot.

To determine the value of each individual spot throughout the whole draft, I looked at the average value of all players chosen at that pick number. Then I applied a smoothing algorithm so that, for example, pick #26 wouldn't be more valuable than pick #25. Teams picking from the #5 slot were generally picking more valuable players on average than the teams right before and after; this may be due to better owners being in the #5 slot and may explain why the #5 draft slot had been calculated as the most valuable. Smoothing the results eliminates the effect of the better owners being in certain positions.

Pick Number Draft Slot Average Value Smoothed Value
1 1 47.0 47.0
2 2 46.3 46.5
3 3 46.2 46.2
4 4 46.3 46.2
5 5 40.7 40.7
6 6 39.4 39.8
7 7 39.4 39.1
8 8 39.0 38.5
9 9 36.8 37.9
10 10 37.1 37.0
11 11 37.0 36.2
12 12 36.5 35.3
13 13 34.7 34.4
14 14 33.5 33.8
15 15 32.3 33.0
16 15 31.3 32.1
17 14 30.9 31.4
18 13 31.0 30.7
19 12 30.0 30.4
20 11 28.8 29.9
21 10 30.0 29.7
22 9 29.0 29.5
23 8 30.2 29.1
24 7 28.4 28.8
25 6 28.4 28.5
26 5 29.1 28.3
27 4 28.5 28.0
28 3 27.2 27.8
29 2 26.9 27.4
30 1 27.4 27.4
31 1 26.8 27.2
32 2 26.5 26.9
33 3 26.2 26.7
34 4 26.5 26.5
35 5 27.4 26.4
36 6 26.4 26.2
37 7 26.6 26.1
38 8 25.7 26.0
39 9 25.8 25.9
40 10 25.5 25.8
41 11 24.8 25.3
42 12 25.7 25.1
43 13 25.9 24.9
44 14 24.8 24.8
45 15 25.1 24.6
46 15 22.1 24.5
47 14 24.1 24.4
48 13 24.9 24.2
49 12 23.8 24.0
50 11 24.2 23.9
51 10 24.5 23.8
52 9 23.8 23.7
53 8 23.1 23.7
54 7 23.2 23.5
55 6 24.0 23.3
56 5 23.0 23.1
57 4 22.6 22.8
58 3 23.6 22.6
59 2 22.5 22.3
60 1 22.0 22.2
61 1 22.1 22.0
62 2 20.8 21.8
63 3 21.5 21.7
64 4 20.4 21.6
65 5 22.3 21.3
66 6 21.4 21.1
67 7 21.0 20.9
68 8 21.1 20.8
69 9 22.5 20.7
70 10 19.7 20.6
71 11 20.1 20.3
72 12 18.9 20.1
73 13 19.8 19.9
74 14 20.2 19.7
75 15 19.8 19.3
76 15 19.2 19.1
77 14 18.9 18.9
78 13 18.4 18.8
79 12 19.6 18.6
80 11 18.1 18.4
81 10 17.5 18.2
82 9 18.0 18.0
83 8 17.5 17.9
84 7 17.9 17.8
85 6 17.7 17.5
86 5 17.8 17.5
87 4 17.3 17.3
88 3 17.8 17.2
89 2 16.5 17.0
90 1 17.0 16.9
91 1 17.6 16.9
92 2 15.6 16.6
93 3 16.4 16.5
94 4 16.1 16.3
95 5 16.8 16.3
96 6 16.8 16.1
97 7 15.2 15.9
98 8 17.9 15.9
99 9 14.0 15.6
100 10 15.8 15.3
101 11 14.9 15.1
102 12 15.2 14.8
103 13 15.4 14.7
104 14 13.9 14.6
105 15 12.8 14.3
106 15 14.1 14.1
107 14 13.8 13.9
108 13 13.2 13.8
109 12 15.6 13.6
110 11 13.8 13.5
111 10 13.4 13.4
112 9 11.8 13.4
113 8 13.3 13.3
114 7 12.6 13.1
115 6 12.9 13.0
116 5 13.8 13.0
117 4 12.9 12.8
118 3 13.9 12.7
119 2 13.0 12.4
120 1 11.1 12.4
121 1 11.4 12.2
122 2 13.1 12.1
123 3 12.5 12.0
124 4 12.7 11.9
125 5 11.9 11.7
126 6 9.7 11.5
127 7 11.5 11.4
128 8 10.8 11.3
129 9 10.4 11.1
130 10 11.9 11.0
131 11 11.6 10.8
132 12 10.4 10.5
133 13 11.3 10.4
134 14 10.5 10.4
135 15 9.4 10.2
136 15 9.5 10.1
137 14 10.9 10.0
138 13 9.2 9.9
139 12 9.0 9.8
140 11 10.1 9.6
141 10 8.7 9.4
142 9 8.4 9.3
143 8 9.6 9.3
144 7 9.7 9.2
145 6 9.4 9.1
146 5 10.1 9.1
147 4 8.1 9.0
148 3 8.9 9.0
149 2 8.4 9.0
150 1 8.8 9.0
151 1 8.7 8.9
152 2 9.4 8.9
153 3 8.6 8.8
154 4 8.9 8.7
155 5 10.0 8.7
156 6 9.4 8.7
157 7 8.4 8.7
158 8 8.8 8.7
159 9 7.4 8.6
160 10 9.0 8.5
161 11 8.6 8.4
162 12 8.5 8.3
163 13 8.0 8.2
164 14 8.3 8.0
165 15 9.2 7.9
166 15 8.6 7.9
167 14 7.8 7.7
168 13 7.0 7.6
169 12 7.0 7.6
170 11 8.0 7.6
171 10 7.8 7.6
172 9 6.8 7.5
173 8 6.0 7.3
174 7 7.5 7.3
175 6 6.2 7.3
176 5 7.5 7.3
177 4 8.0 7.2
178 3 8.5 7.2
179 2 7.7 7.2
180 1 7.6 7.2
181 1 6.0 7.2
182 2 6.8 7.1
183 3 7.8 7.1
184 4 6.8 7.1
185 5 7.0 7.0
186 6 7.5 6.9
187 7 6.8 6.8
188 8 6.6 6.8
189 9 7.5 6.7
190 10 6.8 6.6
191 11 7.1 6.5
192 12 6.8 6.4
193 13 5.7 6.3
194 14 6.4 6.2
195 15 5.8 6.1
196 15 6.1 5.9
197 14 5.6 5.8
198 13 5.8 5.6
199 12 6.1 5.5
200 11 5.6 5.5
201 10 5.9 5.3
202 9 4.6 5.3
203 8 5.3 5.3
204 7 4.3 5.2
205 6 5.8 5.2
206 5 4.7 5.0
207 4 5.5 5.0
208 3 5.0 5.0
209 2 4.1 5.0
210 1 5.5 5.0
211 1 4.8 4.9
212 2 5.8 4.9
213 3 4.9 4.9
214 4 4.1 4.7
215 5 6.1 4.7
216 6 4.5 4.6
217 7 4.7 4.6
218 8 4.8 4.5
219 9 5.2 4.4
220 10 4.2 4.4
221 11 4.1 4.4
222 12 3.5 4.2
223 13 3.6 4.2
224 14 3.7 4.1
225 15 4.5 4.0
226 15 4.6 3.9
227 14 4.1 3.9
228 13 4.7 3.9
229 12 3.6 3.9
230 11 4.1 3.9
231 10 3.7 3.9
232 9 3.8 3.8
233 8 3.4 3.8
234 7 3.9 3.7
235 6 3.6 3.5
236 5 3.8 3.5
237 4 3.5 3.4
238 3 3.7 3.4
239 2 3.9 3.4
240 1 4.1 3.4
241 1 3.1 3.3
242 2 2.5 3.2
243 3 2.4 3.2
244 4 3.0 3.2
245 5 3.5 3.1
246 6 3.3 3.0
247 7 3.7 2.9
248 8 3.8 2.9
249 9 2.6 2.9
250 10 2.1 2.9
251 11 3.3 2.8
252 12 3.0 2.8
253 13 2.2 2.7
254 14 2.5 2.6
255 15 2.9 2.5
256 15 2.1 2.5
257 14 2.9 2.5
258 13 2.7 2.4
259 12 2.6 2.4
260 11 2.5 2.4
261 10 2.6 2.3
262 9 1.8 2.3
263 8 2.0 2.3
264 7 2.5 2.2
265 6 2.0 2.2
266 5 2.3 2.1
267 4 2.3 2.1
268 3 2.1 2.0
269 2 1.6 2.0
270 1 2.7 2.0
271 1 1.5 2.0
272 2 2.2 2.0
273 3 2.1 2.0
274 4 1.7 1.9
275 5 1.5 1.9
276 6 2.5 1.9
277 7 1.7 1.9
278 8 1.8 1.9
279 9 1.4 1.8
280 10 2.2 1.8
281 11 2.0 1.8
282 12 1.9 1.8
283 13 1.9 1.7
284 14 1.8 1.6
285 15 1.9 1.6
286 15 1.4 1.6
287 14 1.6 1.5
288 13 1.5 1.5
289 12 1.5 1.5
290 11 1.5 1.5
291 10 1.1 1.4
292 9 1.2 1.4
293 8 1.5 1.4
294 7 1.3 1.3
295 6 1.2 1.3
296 5 1.7 1.3
297 4 1.6 1.3
298 3 1.2 1.3
299 2 0.9 1.3
300 1 1.4 1.3
301 1 1.6 1.3
302 2 1.1 1.3
303 3 1.1 1.2
304 4 1.4 1.2
305 5 1.7 1.2
306 6 0.9 1.2
307 7 1.0 1.2
308 8 1.2 1.1
309 9 1.1 1.1
310 10 1.4 1.1
311 11 1.1 1.1
312 12 0.6 1.1
313 13 1.1 1.1
314 14 1.2 1.1
315 15 1.4 1.0
316 15 1.0 1.0
317 14 1.4 1.0
318 13 1.2 1.0
319 12 1.0 1.0
320 11 0.7 1.0
321 10 1.1 1.0
322 9 0.6 0.9
323 8 0.9 0.9
324 7 0.9 0.9
325 6 1.0 0.8
326 5 0.8 0.8
327 4 0.7 0.8
328 3 1.0 0.8
329 2 1.0 0.8
330 1 1.0 0.8
331 1 0.8 0.8
332 2 0.8 0.7
333 3 0.6 0.7
334 4 0.7 0.7
335 5 0.7 0.7
336 6 0.5 0.7
337 7 0.7 0.7
338 8 0.7 0.7
339 9 0.5 0.6
340 10 0.8 0.6
341 11 0.7 0.6
342 12 0.7 0.6
343 13 0.5 0.6
344 14 0.9 0.6
345 15 0.6 0.6
346 15 0.5 0.6
347 14 0.7 0.6
348 13 0.3 0.6
349 12 0.4 0.5
350 11 0.5 0.5
351 10 0.3 0.5
352 9 0.5 0.5
353 8 0.5 0.5
354 7 0.7 0.5
355 6 0.7 0.5
356 5 0.8 0.5
357 4 0.5 0.5
358 3 0.4 0.5
359 2 0.4 0.5
360 1 0.6 0.5
361 1 0.5 0.5
362 2 0.4 0.5
363 3 0.5 0.4
364 4 0.4 0.4
365 5 0.4 0.4
366 6 0.8 0.4
367 7 0.4 0.4
368 8 0.4 0.4
369 9 0.4 0.4
370 10 0.3 0.4
371 11 0.6 0.4
372 12 0.2 0.4
373 13 0.6 0.4
374 14 0.4 0.4
375 15 0.4 0.4
376 15 0.3 0.4
377 14 0.6 0.3
378 13 0.4 0.3
379 12 0.2 0.3
380 11 0.4 0.3
381 10 0.3 0.3
382 9 0.3 0.3
383 8 0.2 0.3
384 7 0.3 0.2
385 6 0.3 0.2
386 5 0.1 0.2
387 4 0.1 0.2
388 3 0.2 0.2
389 2 0.2 0.2
390 1 0.4 0.2
391 1 0.2 0.2
392 2 0.2 0.2
393 3 0.2 0.2
394 4 0.2 0.2
395 5 0.5 0.2
396 6 0.3 0.2
397 7 0.1 0.2
398 8 0.2 0.2
399 9 0.2 0.2
400 10 0.4 0.2
401 11 0.0 0.2
402 12 0.1 0.2
403 13 0.2 0.2
404 14 0.3 0.2
405 15 0.3 0.2
406 15 0.2 0.2
407 14 0.1 0.2
408 13 0.1 0.2
409 12 0.1 0.2
410 11 0.2 0.2
411 10 0.1 0.2
412 9 0.1 0.2
413 8 0.1 0.2
414 7 0.2 0.2
415 6 0.2 0.2
416 5 0.3 0.2
417 4 0.2 0.2
418 3 0.2 0.2
419 2 0.2 0.1
420 1 0.1 0.1
421 1 0.1 0.1
422 2 0.2 0.1
423 3 0.2 0.1
424 4 0.1 0.1
425 5 0.2 0.1
426 6 0.2 0.1
427 7 0.2 0.1
428 8 0.2 0.1
429 9 0.0 0.1
430 10 0.1 0.1
431 11 0.0 0.1
432 12 0.1 0.1
433 13 0.1 0.1
434 14 0.2 0.1
435 15 0.1 0.1
436 15 0.1 0.1
437 14 0.1 0.1
438 13 0.1 0.1
439 12 0.1 0.1
440 11 0.1 0.1
441 10 0.2 0.1
442 9 0.1 0.1
443 8 0.1 0.1
444 7 0.1 0.1
445 6 0.1 0.1
446 5 0.0 0.1
447 4 0.1 0.1
448 3 0.1 0.1
449 2 0.1 0.1
450 1 0.1 0.1